It’s fed day and as per the usual the market will be intently focused on what comes of the central bank’s latest policy decision the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 basis point cut and the Fed Funds rate
and considering the fact that the US economy hasn’t altered in any meaningful way since the last meeting it’s more likely than not that the focus will be on the feds outlook for future decisions the decision is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
We are fed chair Jerome Powell will read a statement andthen follow up with a presser at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time the most concerning shifts in the u.s. economic data has come from the debt decline in payrolls and the deterioration and p.m. eyes though these downturns were already evident at the previous decision and things have since stabilized meanwhile the feds concern about external threats of global trade and brags it should be a little less worrying at the moment with both of these risks producing more optimistic headlines this leaves us.
Expecting the Fed holding with its projections which forecast the Fed Funds rate at 1.9 percent into year-end with no change in 2020 all of this will play into fed Powell’s mid-cycle adjustment narrative with the Fed accompanying talk of downside risk with more upbeat expectations for US economic recovery of course this isn’t exactly what investors will be wanting from the central bank as any signs of the Fed being done with cuts and getting back to thinking about the next move whenever it comes being higher are signs that could inspire profit-taking in a stock market that is quite arguably run too far and fast over
the past decade if Powell and company produce a message that’s less dovish than the market wants we anticipate downside pressure and risk markets if on the other hand the market feels good about Fed dovish nest risk assets could look to make another run to the top side.